Services / Forecasting & Document Intelligence
Forecasting & Document Intelligence. Numbers that look forward, and paper that files itself.
Two pieces of work that share a method. Forecasting replaces the spreadsheet rebuilt once a quarter with a model that re-forecasts as actuals arrive. Document intelligence takes the invoices, contracts and bank statements that arrive as files and turns them into structured data, with a person reviewing only what the system is unsure about.
When this helps
- The forecast is rebuilt from scratch each cycle and is stale on arrival
- Nobody can test a scenario without a week of spreadsheet work
- Somebody re-keys supplier invoices into the ledger by hand
- Contract terms live in PDFs and nobody can report on them
- Cash forecasting depends on reading bank statements manually
What is included
The scope is agreed around the decisions in front of you. A typical engagement draws on the following.
Driver-based forecast
A model built on the handful of drivers that actually move your result, not on every line of the P&L.
Automatic re-forecast
Actuals flow in and the forward view updates, keeping the variance against the previous version.
Scenario engine
Change a driver and see the effect on profit, cash and covenants in one view.
Invoice and statement extraction
Structured data out of the documents that arrive as files, posted into the ledger.
Contract data capture
Terms, dates and values pulled out of agreements so that they can be reported and diarised.
Confidence routing
High-confidence extractions post automatically; anything uncertain goes to a person.
Deliverables
- Driver-based forecast model
- Once, then maintained
- Rolling re-forecast
- Monthly
- Scenario comparison
- On demand
- Extraction pipeline, in production
- Continuous
- Forecast accuracy review
- Quarterly
How it works
A clear sequence, so that you see value early and nothing is built that your team cannot own.
Identify
Find the drivers that explain your result, and the documents that cost the most to process.
Build
Forecast model and extraction pipeline, tested against history.
Calibrate
Run against known periods and tune the confidence thresholds before anything posts unreviewed.
Operate
Monthly re-forecast and ongoing extraction, with accuracy tracked and reported.
Questions
How accurate is the forecast?
We measure it. Each cycle the previous forecast is compared against actuals and the error is reported, so that the model is judged on its record rather than on its construction. A forecast nobody scores is a guess.
Is extraction reliable enough to post without review?
For high-confidence, well-structured documents, yes, and the thresholds are set during calibration. Anything below the threshold is routed to a person, and the thresholds remain yours to move.
Can we start with just one of the two?
Yes, and most clients do. They are offered together because they share a method, not because they have to be bought together.
Other services
Most clients combine two or more services as their needs develop.
Discuss forecasting and document intelligence. Thirty minutes, without obligation.
Tell us where the business is headed and what stands in the way. Or write directly to alberto.salas@blackbearcorp.com.
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